Trump beats Biden or Harris in hypothetical 2024 match-up poll

Will President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris be on top of the ticket in 2024? Either way, a new poll suggests things are looking good for Donald Trump, should he be the GOP nominee.

In a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll released to The Hill Monday, Trump held a 4 point lead over Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup. 

His lead was even bigger over Harris.

“The poll found that if the 2024 election were held today, 45 percent of respondents would vote for Trump in a race against Biden, who attracted the support of 41 percent of respondents, while 14 percent were unsure or didn’t know,” The Hill reported.

“In a hypothetical Trump-Harris match-up, Trump’s lead expands to 7 percentage points. Forty-seven percent said they would support Trump, compared to 40 percent for Harris and 13 percent who were unsure or didn’t know.”

Survey co-director Mark Penn noted Biden simply isn’t as strong of a candidate as he was in November of 2020.

What’s more, he noted that this doesn’t even take into account the Electoral College.

“Biden is a very weak Democratic nominee and would lose even the popular vote in a rematch today,” Penn said.

“Trump is far from 50 percent support, and there is a high undecided vote despite everyone knowing the candidates, because the public wants new over more of the same.”

In addition, the poll found that Biden was at the lowest approval rating of his presidency, 38 percent.

This matches up with the gold-standard presidential poll; on July 29, Gallup found the president had reached a new nadir of 38 percent.

His approval rating in that poll was the lowest for a president in the sixth quarter of his presidency. Gallup’s polling stretches all the way back to Eisenhower, making this a 68-year low.

However, in the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, there was still bad news for all of the candidates: None could break the majority threshold in favorability.

“Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable view of Biden, compared to 44 percent for Trump. Just thirty-six percent of voters said they had a favorable view of Harris,” The Hill noted.

“A majority of respondents indicated they did not want Trump nor Biden to run in 2024,” The Hill added, noting 69 percent didn’t want Biden to run while 59 percent wanted Trump to stay out of the race.